{
  "version": "3.0",
  "checked": "2026-10-15",
  "exposure": {
    "source": "ilo",
    "period": "2025 index",
    "unit": "percent of employment within each group",
    "uncertainty": "Intervals not published in the cited summary; rounded published figures. Not probabilities of job loss.",
    "any": [
      {
        "group": "global",
        "value": 25
      },
      {
        "group": "low",
        "value": 11
      },
      {
        "group": "high",
        "value": 34
      }
    ],
    "highest": [
      {
        "group": "global",
        "value": 3.3
      },
      {
        "group": "women",
        "value": 4.7
      },
      {
        "group": "men",
        "value": 2.4
      }
    ]
  },
  "productivity": {
    "source": "metr",
    "intervalSource": "metr-update",
    "period": "February–June 2025 tools; uncertainty restated February 2026",
    "unit": "percent change in task completion time relative to no-AI condition",
    "population": "16 experienced developers, 246 tasks in familiar open-source projects",
    "rows": [
      {
        "group": "before",
        "value": -24,
        "kind": "subjective forecast",
        "lower": null,
        "upper": null
      },
      {
        "group": "after",
        "value": -20,
        "kind": "subjective retrospective perception",
        "lower": null,
        "upper": null
      },
      {
        "group": "observed",
        "value": 19,
        "kind": "randomized experimental estimate",
        "lower": 2,
        "upper": 39
      }
    ],
    "interval": "95% confidence interval for the observed estimate only. Predictions have no reported interval here. Historical tools, not a current benchmark."
  },
  "income": {
    "source": "employment-paper",
    "version": "NBER 32719, revised August 2026, not peer-reviewed",
    "unit": "USD nominal; no currency conversion",
    "treatment": {
      "participants": 1000,
      "monthlyTransfer": 1000
    },
    "control": {
      "participants": 2000,
      "monthlyTransfer": 50
    },
    "months": 36,
    "effects": [
      {
        "metric": "labor-market participation",
        "value": -4.2,
        "unit": "percentage points vs control"
      },
      {
        "metric": "individual income excluding transfer",
        "value": -1900,
        "unit": "USD per year vs control"
      },
      {
        "metric": "weekly work hours",
        "lower": -2,
        "upper": -1,
        "unit": "hours per week vs control, rounded range from abstract, NOT a confidence interval"
      }
    ],
    "uncertainty": "Abstract point estimates / rounded range; confidence intervals not transcribed here. Do not infer exact uncertainty or compare different outcome units on one scale."
  },
  "simulator": {
    "kind": "illustrative arithmetic, NOT empirical data or a forecast",
    "currency": "USD",
    "defaultMonthly": 1000,
    "defaultPopulationMillions": 100,
    "formula": "monthly_benefit * population_millions * 1000000 * 12",
    "exclusions": [
      "tax recovery",
      "benefit offsets",
      "administration",
      "behavioral changes",
      "inflation",
      "funding",
      "country demographic estimate"
    ],
    "note": "Illustrative USD scenario; not a currency conversion of the former BRL scenario and not a fiscal estimate for any country."
  },
  "finlandCurrencyDisplay": {
    "displayCurrency": "USD",
    "originalCurrency": "EUR",
    "originalMonthly": 560,
    "convertedMonthly": 646.97799215686,
    "usdPerEur": 1.15531784313725,
    "method": "Arithmetic mean of ECB annual average EUR/USD rates for 2017 and 2018. Approximate display conversion, not payment-level conversion or inflation adjustment.",
    "annualRates": {
      "2017": 1.1296811764706,
      "2018": 1.1809545098039
    },
    "source": "https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/EXR/EXR.A.USD.EUR.SP00.A"
  }
}